CBO Letter to Senator Projects It Will Take Until 2030 for US GDP to Recover from COVID-19 Pandemic

In a June 1, 2020 letter in response to an inquiry from Senator Schumer, the CBO noted that it will take until 2030 for U.S. GDP to return to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Specifically, the CBO projects with respect to nominal GDP: “Over the 2020-2030 period, cumulative nominal output will be $15.7 trillion less than what the agency projected in January . . . That different constitutes 5.3 percent of the value of the cumulative nominal GDP for that period that the agency predicted in January.”

And, with regard to real GDP the CBO now projects: “[O]ver the 11-year horizon, cumulative real output (in 2019 dollars) will be $7.9 trillion, or 3 percent of cumulative real GDP, less than what the agency predicted in January.”